Immediately after the NFL Draft, every human with an opinion and an internet connection will offer grades on the Bengals’ draft. It will mean little.
True grades, trends and lessons need three years to evolve. That’s why every year, I like to make good on that concept and look back on the draft from three years ago to see what went right, what went wrong and what the Bengals should learn as they go forward into this year’s event.
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Looking back at the 2019 draft is important because rather than going across regimes, we arrive at the first season under head coach Zac Taylor. Since his arrival, the Bengals have drafted with an altered purpose and efficiency and seen alterations in philosophy in terms of positions and characteristics valued.
His first draft featured important lessons to be learned in what direction the Bengals need to go in the middle rounds with two of the worst draft-weekend trades in their recent history coming on the same day.
Time to offer grades, superlatives and the primary takeaways in relation to the 2022 draft when looking back at the first with Taylor and director of player personnel Duke Tobin working together.
First round (11): Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
The Bengals had no shortage of needs in 2019 as Taylor and company were starting from scratch in the rebuild. Clearly, offensive line was near the top of the list. Cordy Glenn was still slotted at left tackle, but they saw a potential to move him inside. Bobby Hart was the right tackle. By all accounts, they needed help up front as had been the case for years.
Most thought the Bengals would target one of the top two linebackers, Devin Bush or Devin White, at No. 11, but Pittsburgh traded up to snatch Bush one spot in front of them. Oddly enough, Bush and White were the two lowest-graded linebackers from the 2019 class this past season. The Bengals said they had Williams targeted the entire time, but should they have? Let’s take a look at who else was on the board.
Defensive end Rashan Gary went next to Green Bay and was the seventh highest-graded defender in all of football last year by PFF. Defensive end Brian Burns went 16th to the Panthers soon after. He went to the Pro Bowl in 2020 but had a disappointing 2021. At 19th, Tennessee took a risk on injured defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. Joe Burrow and the Bengals are well aware of the force he developed into at the defensive tackle position. That’s three game-changing pass rushers left on the board in favor of Williams.
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The Bengals did already employ Carlos Dunlap, Carl Lawson, Geno Atkins and Sam Hubbard. It would have taken some forward thinking to go defensive line, particularly edge.
The Bengals have forever passed on defensive linemen in the first round, so it came as no surprise. The last first-round defensive lineman was Justin Smith fourth in 2001. They’ve shown a real organizational knack for finding productive linemen in later rounds, but thinking through the lens of this pick should that continue? More on that later.
Williams was not an egregious decision, in retrospect. The Bengals wish Williams played a more dominant brand of football through his 31 games and two healthy seasons. But he’s a solid left tackle. Those are valuable, tough-to-find pieces.
As far as sifting through the top tackle prospects that year, the Bengals did a nice job. There was plenty of debate surrounding the top five or six tackles in regard to which one was the best and should be the first off the board.
Williams has graded out as the top offensive tackle in his draft class (minimum 500 snaps) in each of the two seasons he played. That includes outperforming the top tackles taken by a wide margin.
2019 draft: PFF grades of top tackles
Player
| Selected ▲ | 2020
| 2021
|
|---|---|---|---|
11 | 70.1 | 74.5 | |
22 | N/A | N/A | |
23 | 62.1 | N/A | |
31 | 64.3 | 62.8 | |
35 | 56.5 | 60.4 | |
37 | N/A | N/A | |
38 | 53.8 (G) | 46.5 (G) | |
40 | 61.3 (G) | 68.5 (G) |
*N/A for fewer than minimum snaps
Williams is on the rise with steady improvement from his first to second season and it’s realistic to think another steady bump would put him among the top 10 left tackles in football this year. He graded 14th last season, via PFF.
The Bengals could have done better here if leaning to the pass rushers, but for targeting a solid player at a premium position, they made out fine.
• Grade: B-
Drew Sample speaks during his introductory media conference after being drafted. (Albert Cesare / USA Today)Second round (52): Traded back 10 spots, added fourth- and sixth-rounders, selected TE Drew Sample
Over the course of Mariano Rivera’s 19-year, Hall of Fame career in which he threw his famous cutter nearly every pitch, he gave up 71 home runs. You might be wondering what the legendary Yankees closer has to do with Drew Sample or if this was an accidental copy-and-paste from an old C. Trent Rosecrans story.
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As much as I would love to come up with a joint-venture project with CTR, this is merely an example of probability. Even the most potent of weapons, the most formidable of go-to moves miss every once in a while. When it comes to drafting, no move has been more popular in Cincinnati as the second-round trade back. They use it to usually get about the same player while adding mid-round capital for further gains in roster depth and filling positional holes.
In the two previous seasons, they selected Joe Mixon and Jessie Bates after trading back, but the third time wasn’t exactly the charm.
The Bengals dropped from pick 42 to 52 with a target on Sample, whose interviews had blown them away. They viewed him as a core culture-changing piece as well as a versatile weapon in marrying the run and pass game in Taylor’s new system.
Sample has been OK. He’s a fine player, but finding a rotational, primarily run-blocking tight end when you had the 42nd pick in the draft at your disposal is less Rivera cutter and more Heath Hembree cement mixer.
By moving back, the Bengals passed on two Pro Bowlers — Elgton Jenkins, offensive lineman for Green Bay, and A.J. Brown, star receiver for Tennessee. Even at 52, D.K. Metcalf was enduring his improbable fall down the draft board and available. But the Bengals had what they thought would be a healthy A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd and the projected emergence of 2017 first-round pick John Ross. So, receiver wasn’t top of mind.
They added fourth- and sixth-round picks that offered flexibility to move up for two targeted players on the third day. More moves that inevitably backfired and produced little.
Sample is fine. In fact, it’s unfair his draft position will taint what will eventually be viewed as a solid eight- to 10-year NFL career that any team should strive to select at any point in the draft. And the Bengals’ culture has changed. While he was not a captain, he was part of the flip, including a close friendship with Sam Hubbard and Joe Burrow.
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Situationally, his selection is a disappointment and a reminder that as much as the Bengals love to move back in the second round, it will not work every time. Sometimes, it might be the difference between A.J. Brown and Drew Sample.
• Grade: D+
Third round (72): Germaine Pratt, LB, N.C. State
Speaking of favorite moves, the third-round linebacker showed up again with Pratt. He’s been given every opportunity to develop into a quality starter and is getting there. He’s taken time to develop, but with the emergence of self-dubbed “Playoff P” last season when he delivered one of the most famous interceptions in club history against the Raiders then a spectacular performance in the Super Bowl, these were the flashes the Bengals hoped they were selecting.
Again, an openness to drafting a receiver would have delivered the home run pick as Ohio State’s Terry McLaurin went four picks later, but Pratt was a solid selection that has paid dividends.
• Grade: C+
Germaine Pratt celebrates after an interception as time expires in the AFC wild-card playoff victory against the Raiders. (Joseph Maiorana / USA Today)Fourth round (104): Traded up six spots, swapped fifth- and sixth-rounders, selected QB Ryan Finley, N.C. State
Some may say this move was a colossal failure. But perhaps it was all part of a long con, knowing Finley would be a terrible NFL quarterback and when inserted into a starting lineup would be responsible for losing games that ended up delivering Joe Burrow into the Bengals’ laps in the 2020 draft.
OK, maybe we’re giving a little too much credit. But the Bengals took a swing with Finley and went up to get him. Also on the board at that spot and selected two picks later: Maxx Crosby, now a star defensive end with the Raiders.
This was the first big quarterback move from the quarterback guru head coach. Outside of one spectacular preseason game in Washington and the “Monday Night Football” game in which his legs and the Bengals defense pulled off a tide-turning upset of the Steelers, this was a waste of multiple picks.
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Even if he was so bad it was good.
• Grade: F
Fourth round (125): Renell Wren, DT, Arizona State
The pick was fine at the time. It didn’t work out. Wren sustained a hip injury toward the end of his rookie season and battled injuries throughout his career. It felt like we never got to see if the upward trend he showed at Arizona State would continue in the NFL since he was never fully developed into the player he could be. A whiff, but bad luck takes the blame. Maybe he finds new life in Philadelphia.
• Grade: N/A
Fourth round (136): Traded up 13 spots, gave up sixth-rounder, selected OL Michael Jordan
Another trade up in the fourth round. Another swing and a miss. With extra picks at their disposal, the Bengals acted aggressively in pinpointing the players they wanted. They just failed to develop. Jordan was given every opportunity to be the guy, and there were moments in time it looked like he was growing into the role. But the consistency never came and he never sustained his flashes of rare athleticism. The problem with this pick was only partially the miss, but mostly the doubling down on him as the failures continued deep into his second season to the tune of 731 snaps. That included one that was part of Burrow tearing his ACL. You want to give a player you believe in a fair shake, but shaking too long can prove disastrous for a team and quarterback. A tough lesson the Bengals should keep in mind as they evaluate Jackson Carman during his second season.
• Grade: F
Sixth round (182): Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M
This pick stemmed directly from Williams successfully running the ball for offensive line coach Jim Turner for the Aggies. When Turner brought the system to the Bengals, he could sell the guy who ran behind it to great success in college. Williams hasn’t seen many opportunities to prove it while the Bengals added and drafted over top of him. But, it’s a sixth-round pick, you take your shots.
• Grade: C
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Sixth round (210): Deshaun Davis, LB, Auburn
Davis slid to the sixth round as an undersized linebacker but had some good tape in the SEC. It never showed when he arrived and he didn’t even make the roster as a rookie. You can’t be too hard on late-round picks. They are all just taking chances.
• Grade: D
Sixth round (211): Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma
The Bengals took a chance that the debilitating injuries suffered by Anderson in college would go away by the time he arrived in Cincinnati. For a split second, they looked quite smart for taking the risk. Anderson, in his limited preseason action, showed all the burst and elusiveness that created legendary games at Oklahoma. His body eventually turned on him and he couldn’t stay healthy. It wasn’t meant to be, but it was a good process for a high-risk roll. Didn’t mind it then, don’t mind it now.
• Grade: B
Seventh round (223): Jordan Brown, CB, South Dakota State
Another late-round pick who failed to make the team. Seventh-rounders fail. Only 13 of 39 seventh-round picks that year have started a single game in the NFL over the last three seasons and only one (Myles Gaskin) more than 10.
• Grade: D
Jonah Williams has proven to be a steady starter on the Bengals’ offensive line. (Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)Superlatives
Best pick: Jonah Williams
Worst pick: Ryan Finley
“What could have been” moment: Bengals trade back and select Drew Sample, instead of selecting versatile offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins. Jenkins has developed into a quality starter at every position on the line, including left tackle, for the Packers and would have gone a long way to eventually solidifying the line when Burrow arrived. It would have been a bold double-up on the line trying to rectify the sins of the Cedric Ogbuehi/Jake Fisher debacle, but in theory, this would have turned into a foundation for protecting the future face of the franchise. His versatility to play every position up front could have changed the future decisions with Trey Hopkins, selecting Jordan or even needing Riley Reiff as a bridge right tackle. The butterfly effect looms large with this one. If they take Jenkins, they likely pass on Jordan or don’t get him since they wouldn’t have the capital for a second move up. Does that mean he doesn’t tear his ACL in Washington or the Bengals have enough protection to win the Super Bowl?
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Overall grade: C
Fine. OK. Not bad. But there was so much more out there considering the number of picks at the Bengals’ disposal. Plus, the moves made with the most conviction by trading up in the fourth round both failed. And the decision to move back with an eye on Sample overlooked two future Pro Bowlers at their fingertips. The decision to stay away from receivers in this draft is one they would come to regret almost immediately after Green’s injury and Ross’ struggles. You can judge any draft’s success by asking if they found three or four quality players. You’d love a star, an above-average starter and solid starting/rotational piece or two out of every draft. That would be an A draft. They came away with an above-average starter (Williams) and two rotational pieces (Sample/Pratt), but for all the draft picks, trades and positioning, they didn’t check all the boxes despite multiple chances to do so.
What we learn about now
We learned about how two recurring strategies for the Bengals can hurt if not executed properly. The first-round selection of Williams wasn’t the wrong move by any stretch, but the devaluing of first-round defensive linemen can be seen here as problematic. Passing on Gary, Burns and Simmons leaves you having to break the bank in free agency down the line without any elite pass rushers. Some of this is situational to the roster during this particular draft, but when you haven’t taken a first-round defensive lineman since 2001, we know the lean. The Bengals again have a need on the defensive line this year, particularly a pass-rushing three-technique to pair with B.J. Hill and even another edge rusher behind the starters. Will they wait again or pounce at No. 31?
Or will they look at a trade back out of 31 into the second round? They have now traded back in the second round in four of the last five drafts. Even though 31 is technically a first-round pick, it more accurately plays into the second-round strategy and would see more suitors there as teams seek the fifth-year option on the handful of developmental quarterbacks making up this draft. Adding picks later often works out, but don’t underestimate the talent left on the board in these moves. Sometimes it’s better to just make the pick (in the same way the Bengals did a year later at No. 33 taking Tee Higgins despite multiple offers to move back).
And speaking of receivers, the Bengals will be looking for depth at that position in this draft. Don’t forget the receivers who were on the board at nearly every turn of the ’19 draft and the level they are playing three years later (when the Higgins, Boyd and Ja’Marr Chase bills start to come due).
They could have taken A.J. Brown or DK Metcalf in the second round, McLaurin in the third round, Hunter Renfrow in the fourth. All are Pro Bowlers and all were found at different levels of draft weekend. There might be a temptation to think receiver to aggressively replenish depth and provide injury insurance, but don’t take the bait. Remember this draft and the names that were on the board. Especially when pairing them with Burrow, the right quarterback can find the best in the deep waves of prospects at the position.
(Top photo of Germaine Pratt: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
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